Market Update - April 24

TRUMP WANTS A DEAL, CHINA WANTS TERMS

After weeks of aggressive rhetoric and market turmoil, President Donald Trump is beginning to dial back his stance on the trade war with China. Amid a sharp sell-off in equities and rising recession fears, Trump announced plans to significantly reduce the 145% tariffs on Chinese imports, calling them “unsustainable.”

His statement came in the wake of a brutal drop in U.S. stock indices — triggered by the tariff hikes and public threats aimed at the Federal Reserve. Investors were bracing for further deterioration in economic conditions, leading to heavy losses across the board.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed that there won’t be a unilateral rollback of tariffs, but expressed hope for mutual concessions from Beijing. He also noted that a full trade agreement with China could take 2–3 years to finalize, and admitted that the current tariff structure is “unstable.”

While Trump recycles the usual slogans — “fair deal,” “honest trade,” “we’ll make money for the people” — Beijing is responding with stone-cold silence. The only official message: if the U.S. truly wants resolution, it should start by scrapping all unilateral tariffs against China.

China’s Ministry of Commerce isn’t mincing words — there are no ongoing negotiations, and any statements out of the U.S. are “groundless and lack factual basis.” Beijing’s position is clear: no mutual respect, no parity — no talks. And definitely no back-and-forth through press headlines.

China’s Foreign Ministry echoed the stance: Washington’s “tariff tsunami” violates WTO rules and harms the global economy. The Ministry of Commerce added that if the U.S. wants to sit down at the table, it needs to show sincerity — not run a media campaign.

Beijing’s in no rush. And that’s its power. Markets are itching for a deal, Washington needs stability — but China’s making it known: either negotiations happen on equal footing, or they don’t happen at all.


What’s happening with BTC and stocks in the meantime?

$BTC:

BTC is trading below VAH and the 21/50 EMAs — signaling that the bullish trend is fading on lower timeframes. But as long as it holds above the 200 EMA, bulls still have the upper hand.

Now, if BTC fails to break back above VAH (93,015), the likely scenario is a move down to 90,458 — and if that breaks, we’re looking at a drop toward the 7D VWAP (89,200), which should act as a bounce zone.

S&P 500:

Price is trading between dWeek VWAP (5320.25) and dWeek VAH (5427) → in balance.

EMA 21/55 are starting to curl downward, and price is testing the 55 EMA.
Stochastic shows an attempt to reverse out of oversold territory.

Support: 5354.50 (7D VWAP)
Resistance: 5427 (VAH), 5439.75 (365D VWAP)

Outlook:
If bulls hold the 5350–5320 zone, a push back toward 5430–5467 is on the table.
Lose that support → range reversion back to 5300–5213.

NASDAQ:

Structure mirrors ES - pullback from VAH ($18,871), testing the 55 EMA.
Price remains above the 7D and dWeek VWAP → bullish bias still intact.
Stochastic is bouncing off oversold → short-term upside possible.

Support: 18,448 (VWAP), 18,590 (7D VWAP)
Resistance: 18,871 (VAH), 19,107 (365D VWAP)

Outlook:
Holding 18,450–18,600 opens up a move back toward $18,870–19,100.
Lose VWAP → possible pullback toward $18,025.

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