Options Flow Radar: BTC nearing $100k, watch for Reversal Signals
BTC rallied strongly to mid-$90k levels amid bullish options positioning and robust Coinbase/Binance spot buying. However, subtle signs of short-term market complacency have emerged, warranting vigilance as BTC approaches key resistance at $100k.
Options Sentiment
Dominant Calls: Call volume (66%) heavily outweighs puts, highlighting bullish expectations. Largest OI concentration at the pivotal $100k strike.
Neutralized Skew: Skew has flattened, indicating reduced downside protection buying. This suggests growing complacency, potentially amplifying volatility if market reverses.
Moderate IV: Implied volatility (IV) has settled around mid-50%, signaling calm expectations despite nearing major resistance. The narrowing gap between implied and realized volatility underscores current complacency.
Spot Dynamics
Coinbase & Binance Strength: Recent breakout above $90k was supported by significant spot buying on both exchanges. Order books show strong bid support ($85–90k) but thinner liquidity toward $100k.
Reduced Exchange Reserves: BTC reserves on Binance fell by ~50k BTC in recent weeks, indicating accumulation by long-term holders—bullish for supply dynamics.
Price Scenarios
Base Case (60%) – Cautiously Bullish
BTC likely to test the $95–100k zone again, driven by spot accumulation and gamma dynamics from options market positioning.
Short-lived dips toward $88–90k possible but expected to attract buyers.
A breakout above $100k, if it occurs, could trigger a gamma squeeze, rapidly pushing BTC toward $105–110k.
Reversal Scenario (40%) – Elevated Risks
Complacent skew and moderate IV suggest the market is not fully hedged against downside shocks.
Failure to sustain above $95k with rising put demand or spot selling pressure would signal weakness.
A breakdown below $88k could trigger a swift correction towards $80–85k as traders rush to hedge previously bullish positions.
Key Levels & Indicators
Resistance: $95k, significant barrier at $100k
Support: Strong at $88–90k, critical at $80–85k
Watch for spikes in IV, skew turning negative, or sudden shifts to put-buying as early reversal indicators.
Conclusion
BTC maintains a bullish bias in the short-term, but increasing complacency around $100k poses reversal risks. Traders should closely monitor volatility signals and market flows near these critical thresholds.